by Ethan Johnson
June 25, 2008

The 2008 WNBA season is over 25% complete, so now is a good time to take a moment to review some wonky numbers before the Rethinking Basketball blog beats me to it. Well, bookmark that site anyway because it's pretty amazing.

Because the schedule is so spotty (long road stretches for some teams), I can't really do an "apples to apples" comparison. Plus the season is young yet, so these numbers, while perhaps interesting and intriguing, really don't tell the whole story. It might be fun to look back on this article in a few months and see how the trends shifted or solidified.

First, some myths and assumptions about the WNBA, to add flavor and texture to the actual numbers:

• Myth: Nobody wants to see women's pro basketball in the USA.
• Myth: Fine, people (cough - lesbians - cough) show up to the games, but no WNBA team can consistently attract 10,000 fans.
• Myth: Pro sports are not legitimate unless a team consistently attracts 10,000 fans per game.
• Assumption: The "Candace Parker effect" will sell out arenas whenever LA comes to town.
• Assumption: Winning teams sell more tickets.
• Unconfirmed: WNBA teams "break even" at 7000 tickets sold per game. (Supposedly the NBA commissioner said this.)

Okay, now the numbers:

Average attendance rankings (Team/average/wins-losses):

1. Los Angeles 9184 (10-3)
2. Detroit 9151 (10-4)
3. Sacramento 8659 (6-7)
4. Indiana 8138 (7-6)
5. Washington 8074 (5-8)
6. Phoenix 7959 (5-7)
7. Seattle 7951 (8-7)
8. New York 7859 (6-6)
9. San Antonio 7836 (8-5)
10. Atlanta 7319 (0-13)
11. Houston 6907 (5-8)
12. Connecticut 6731 (11-3)
13. Minnesota 6587 (7-6)
14. Chicago 3594 (3-8)

Number of teams with winning records ranked 1-7 in attendance: 4

Number of teams with losing records ranked 8-14 in attendance: 4

Thus, a slight edge to winning records in the top half of the table, but not the dramatic "cream rises" effect I was expecting.

Questions/Mitigating factors:

I don't have many answers as to why the numbers shook out like they did, but there were certainly some mitigating factors. I will address some of these in a separate article.

• NBA Finals were counter-programmed against the WNBA schedule, which also affected LA home game scheduling.
• The "Candace Parker effect" did by and large draw 10,000+ fans, where possible. Glaring exception: Chicago, which has a maximum capacity of 6304. The CP3 effect does not seem to apply to LA home games (but see above caveat re: NBA Finals).
• Two teams are in striking distance of the 10,000-seat goalpost set arbitrarily by The Haters. Expect this goalpost to move once the 10K target has been met.
• Atlanta is this year's expansion team, which is driving ticket sales in spite of its record-tying awful season.
• Season home openers by and large were the top attendance figure per team, except for Chicago, Connecticut, San Antonio, and Washington. (LA was top draw for all except Connecticut who has not played LA at home yet.)
• If the 7000-seat threshold is an accurate gauge of team profitability, 4/14 teams are falling short of that target as of today. However, I have been advised elsewhere that profitability may be achieved through other means, including merchandise sales and sponsorship opportunities.
• I do not have detailed information as of yet as to what measures each team is doing to promote themselves and attract ticket buyers. Minnesota is 13th in average attendance despite an aggressive marketing campaign outside of whatever the WNBA is doing to promote the league. Media exposure such as the Candace Parker dunk, the Becky Hammon Olympics controversy, and the "Expect Great" TV commercials seem to be driving name recognition and casual interest.

As threatened, I'll have more analysis of the above numbers (and some as yet unreported by me) in another article. Now that the NBA season is over, will interest in the WNBA rise enough to break the 10,000 seat threshold? Will Chicago lose their franchise to Oklahoma City? Will the Olympics be a rally-killer for the WNBA when the schedule blanks out for most of August?

Stay tuned, eh. <EM>

(The full WNBA archive may be found here.)