by Ethan Johnson
September 17, 2008

The playoffs begin tomorrow, which means I had better get this regular season attendance analysis in under the wire. Check out part one if you haven't already.

The big questions/assumptions:

• Assumption: The "Candace Parker effect" will sell out arenas whenever LA comes to town.
• Assumption: Winning teams sell more tickets.
• Unconfirmed: WNBA teams "break even" at 7000 tickets sold per game.
• Question: Will people show up to see Olympians after the Olympic break?
• Challenge: Will any WNBA team meet or exceed the arbitrary "legitimacy" threshold of 10,000 tickets sold on average?

Rather than muck about with tables, here are the numbers, sorted by highest attendance to lowest:

1. Detroit: Average attendance = 9565, final W/L record = 22-12
2. Los Angeles: Average attendance = 9508, final W/L record = 20-14
3. Washington: Average attendance = 9096, final W/L record = 10-24
4. Phoenix: Average attendance = 8515, final W/L record = 16-18
5. New York: Average attendance = 8398, final W/L record = 19-15
6. Seattle: Average attendance = 8264, final W/L record = 22-12
7. Atlanta: Average attendance = 8132, final W/L record = 4-30
8. Sacramento: Average attendance = 8180, final W/L record = 18-16
9. San Antonio: Average attendance = 7984, final W/L record = 24-10
10. Indiana: Average attendance = 7702, final W/L record = 17-17
11. Connecticut*: Average attendance = 7644, final W/L record = 21-13
12. Minnesota: Average attendance = 7057, final W/L record = 16-18
13. Houston*: Average attendance = 6585, final W/L record = 17-17
14. Chicago*: Average attendance = 3656, final W/L record = 12-22

* Teams that do not have seating capacity of 10,000 or greater

Number of teams with winning records ranked 1-7 in attendance: 4

Number of teams with losing records ranked 8-14 in attendance: 2

Notes:

• Not sure why Detroit edged out LA for top attendance. LA had more 10,000+ games, but Detroit made it up on volume, I guess.
• The league has been accused of gerrymandering the attendance figures, which makes me ask, why not get all Kim Jong-Il about it and call every game a sellout? If you're gonna take the time to lie, why not go for the whopper?
• I didn't factor the "outdoor classic" into this except for the win/loss result. The proceeds went to charity and the game was not played at Madison Square Garden. This is not a useful stat as to the financial health of the team.
• Unlike Houston, which was one of 2 teams that did not pass the 7000 break-even threshold. Chicago was the other, as their venue only seats 6500. Houston's home venue seats 7200+, which makes the attendance numbers so puzzling. Well, the losing record for 2 months doesn't help. But they had 4 sellouts. It's not impossible.
• The CP3 effect seems to have cooled off, mostly. No post-Olympic bounce like I was expecting, either. If anything, the Olympic break seems to have cooled the tea, so to speak. Perhaps the playoffs will draw larger crowds - especially sports fans that are attracted to "any kind of championship."
• Teams that play in barns averaged well below 50% venue capacity per game. Teams with intimate venues stood a better chance to get close to 100% average capacity, but only Houston came close with 90%. Chicago averaged 58% capacity in a 6500-seat venue. Really: Not sure what the deal is up there, but teams like that run a huge risk of midnight relocation to Oklahoma City. The OKC Sky. It fits, you know. Not sure about the OKC Comets, which is apparently a higher and more realistic risk.
• "Camp day" was a league-wide promotion to get area day camps to turn out for an afternoon matinee. From a numbers standpoint (butts in seats) this was a smashing success. not sure if it was a financial boon or not, with group discounts and so on. Plus the kids, being kids, had a tendency to scream at anything, not necessarily anything beneficial for the home team.
• Bravo to Atlanta fans for sticking with the Dream in spite of their dismal inaugural season. But bravo again - if that's the word for it - to the Washington Mystics fans. #3 in attendance despite an incredibly awful year (for an established team).

I am not going to be tallying up the playoff numbers here, but I'll track them for my own amusement. Anyway, I'm bummed that no team broke the mythical 10K threshold (arbitrary as it may be) but most teams are breaking through the 7K "break even" threshold, which bodes well for next year. I'll have final thoughts on the season after the playoffs and finals.

The playoffs begin in earnest tomorrow on ESPN2 and NBA TV.<EM>

(The full WNBA archive may be found here.)